Polo’s Moisture Raises Texas Flood Risk This Week

Texas is heading into a wet week, but not one in which every city will see continuous rain. The greatest near-term flooding concern is in the Panhandle and West Texas on Tuesday, September 29, into Wednesday. Showers and storms then become more likely farther east and south through the second half of the week. The risk comes from repeated rounds of rain: a second storm over already soaked ground can cause flooding even where the first one did not.

As of Sunday, September 27, Hurricane Polo is still over the eastern Pacific. The National Hurricane Center forecasts it to move across the Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico before weakening. Its moisture and remnant circulation are expected to interact with an upper-level storm over the Southwest. Meanwhile, a separate feed of Gulf moisture moves north into Texas. This is a forecast for heavy rain, not a forecast for hurricane-force winds in Texas.

The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles are in the most concerning corridor. The National Weather Service in Amarillo expects rounds of rain beginning Tuesday, with the highest rain rates favored Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Recently wet ground makes it easier for runoff to build quickly. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center placed the western Panhandles in a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday into early Wednesday — level 3 of its four-tier scale. That means numerous flash-flood incidents are possible within the risk area, not that every location will flood.

Around Lubbock and the South Plains, Tuesday through Wednesday is also the key window. NWS Lubbock warns that Polo-related tropical moisture may support heavy rain and flooding in spots. Farther southwest, the Midland/Odessa forecast office expects very high atmospheric moisture over West Texas and southeast New Mexico; a flood watch covers especially vulnerable areas, including Culberson County. Watch boundaries and exact rainfall placement can change as the storm approaches.

North Texas begins the week largely hot and dry. NWS Fort Worth expects only isolated storms near its northwest area Tuesday, followed by increasing rain and storm chances mid-to-late week, with localized flooding possible. That is a later, less certain risk than the Tuesday Panhandle threat.

For Austin and San Antonio, rain chances rise Tuesday night and stay higher Wednesday through Friday. In Southeast Texas, NWS Houston expects deeper Gulf moisture and a slow-moving upper-level disturbance to bring rain chances from Wednesday into the weekend. These eastern and southern storms should not all be described as Polo’s direct rainfall: Gulf moisture and local storm placement will matter greatly.

The upper-level system’s speed and Polo’s eventual path will determine where the heaviest bands set up. A shift of even a county or two can move the flood risk substantially, and widespread rain does not mean identical totals everywhere. Keep an eye on the Weather Prediction Center’s updated excessive-rainfall outlook and your local NWS office, especially if you live near a low-water crossing, burn scar, creek, or recently flooded neighborhood.

For grid and weather watchers, clouds and rain can interrupt the late-September cooling-demand pattern, but intense storms can also disrupt local service and travel. The immediate story is safety: plan for slower travel during the Tuesday–Wednesday West Texas peak, and check fresh forecasts before assuming the later-week rain will fall in the same places.

This outlook reflects NOAA/NWS forecasts available September 27, 2026. Risk areas, timing, and storm status can change; the source link above points to a live discussion that will be updated after publication. Polo was still a hurricane at publication, so references to its remnants describe the forecast later in the week, not its current status.